The Election Is Over. What Now?

So, what does it all mean?

Frankly, I do not think anyone really knows.  When President Obama was elected, with a Senate and House majority, there was widespread expectation (hope?) of change.  Well, as the current cliche' goes, How's that turned out for you?

Here, in my view, is how it turned out.  Our GIs are still locked in hot engagements in the Mideast and central Asia (OK, maybe in Iraq, just hunkered down behind the bunkers waiting for the next wave of violence targeting them); unemployment is worse than even in the Eisenhower years; no meaningful new regulation or restrictions on unbridled and pernicious capitalism exploiting America's working families; tepid reform of health care, which in the long run will be a big bonus for drug and insurance companies; and the vocal and willfully ignorant thirty-five percent of the electorate calling themselves tea-bags have captured the attention of the posturing Hoople-Heads of the national and local media and landed a few elections in what are mostly red states any way--sort of like over coloring crimson with scarlet.

Hardly what we expected from an Obama administration, right?  But, it's what we got and where we are.

My suspicion is that the Republicans will mistakenly act as though they have a mandate to destroy Social Security by handing it over to the liars, thieves, cut-purses, mendicants, dementers and death-eaters of Wall Street.  They will attempt to further enrich their insurance czar and drug company oligarch buddies by attempting to "privatize" Medicare and the Veteran's Administration health care system.  They will do this under the banner of "reducing the size of government and bringing down the deficit".

On it's face, this is an obvious lie:  The services and health care will still have to be delivered and the costs will still be there, but instead of well managed and regulated, and very cost effective, federal programs that protect Americans from the avarice of faceless corporations, we would be saddled with the Huns, Visigoths and Vandals of health care for profit companies freed to rampage through the pocket books of Americans of all persuasions.

That is the change they are promising.  Very quickly they will run into the same realities that progressives have encountered with Obama, we don't control history--history controls us!  They are facing some hard and bitter truths beyond the rhetoric and posturing that helped them gain some level of ascendancy in this by-year election.  Democrats still control  the Senate and the White House and have enough House seats to impede them.  Reid remains majority leader in the Seante and Pelosi will be house minority leader, second guessing Boehner as he did her.  Nearly half the Blue-Dog Democrats lost their seats to real Republicans--meaning that the Democrats have the opportunity to assess themselves regarding their progressive roots.  The Democrats, having been dope-slapped behind the head, should awaken, abandon pretensions to the center or right, and take this opportunity assume a more unified opposition to the Republican's outlandish notion of fiscal management.

Republicans will find that this election was about anger rather than an endorsement of their policies, and they will find, as progressives found after 2008, that the promise of change is easily made, but delivering on that promise is not easy, and that they have set themselves up for monumental future distrust.

VOTE! They Don't Want You To!

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2010 Democrats Facing Stark Midterm Realities

Democrats Are Banking on Motivating '08 First-Time Voters

In a mail-piece sent out to party loyalists last week, The DNC announced its "National Plan" to target and motivate the surge of first-time voters in '08 who made the difference in the outcome of that election.  They accounted for 15 to 20 million of the total votes cast for, then candidate, now President Obama.

This key group will be particularly challenging in a mid-term election where the novelty of voting for our first African-American president does not oil the engine of voter turnout.  How daunting is it?  Well consider these statistics supplied by the Democratic National Committee:

This group is comprised of voters who registered after '06 and first voted in '08.  Over 50% of them are young African American or Latino,  the rest are New Dems and Dem voting independents, and all felt a "special connection" to the President.  However, these are voting cohorts who historically present a very low turnout in mid-term elections.  In short, there's a lot of gristle to be gnawed on and swallowed if we are to expect to see these voters turning out for 2010.

Another key group is made up of "Sporadic Voters" who are people who have voted in Presidential years or registered before '06.  Unlike the previous group (First Time Voters) these voters are more evenly spread between the parties, have low turnout in mid-term elections and are made up of a relatively high ratio of African-American and Latino voters.  Roughly 36-million fall into this category.

And, if I'm not dropping in a gratuitous metaphor, the joker in the pack are those who traditionally do turnout for mid-term elections.  They are more likely to be part of the GOP base, with 80% being white, older voters.  This group is about 72 million voters, more than the previous groups combined.

Clearly, the challenge--and, I'm thinking challenge is not the word, more like the damned near insurmountable task--is to generate a turnout that will swing close elections by a few points.  To accomplish this expect to see Obama's grassroots group, Organizing for America, using phone banks,  and door-to-door campaigns to reach out and touch 20088's First Time voters and other highly prioritized groups in order to generate early vote programs, such as "Vote-by-Mail and absentee voting.  The DNC will fund robocalls targeting the same potential voters.

The Democrats cite how the numbers can be made to work through such tactics by providing Ohio as an example where there were 763-thousand First Time Voters (681K Youth, 545K African-American, & 100K Latino).  In this example, the campaign would generate 88-thousand votes, an increase of 8% for First Time Voters, and 2% of the '06 turnout and sufficient to "swing" a close election.

Well maybe, but I'm thinking someone needs to be sending for money, guns and lawyers!